The rules for development of the Arctic Region will be written on Yamal

09.07.2012 — Analysis

The sea-based research expedition, Yamal-Arctic 2012, will start in August. The scientists intend to study the condition of the ecological system of the region prior to the industrial development of the oil and gas-bearing provinces on the shelf. The government authorities of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District fear that climatic changes may upset the balance of nature and trigger technogenic accidents entailing global consequences. As the RusBusinessNews columnist has found it out, the treat of this scenario is quite realistic: Even the superficial study of the Shtokmanovskoye field caused a large number of natural climatic risks that may grow into a disaster if the field is developed thoughtlessly.

The Arctic expedition was organized by the government of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District and the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet). The route of the Professor Molchanov research vessel includes water areas of the Baydaratskaya Bay, the Gulf of Ob, Gydan and Tazov Bays. The scientists will also conduct a number of field investigations involving landing in areas scheduled for research. The priority will be given to assessment of the condition of the tundra soils exposed to technogenic impacts, pollution of the water areas and health of the northern population living in changing climatic conditions. 

Within the recent years, the interest to the Arctic Region and to permafrost, in particular, has substantially increased. Melting of glaciers and numerous newly formed lakes raised scientists' concern about the impact of released carbon on the atmosphere and, consequently, on the climate of the Earth. Researchers have not come to agreement regarding consequences of this impact, which was clearly demonstrated by the 10th International Conference on Permafrost that was held in Salekhard at the end of June in 2012.

All scientists agree that over the last 200 years the overall temperature has increased by 1.2 degrees. However, their opinions about the factors that caused the warming are controversial. Some of the researchers believe that the warming was caused by excessive concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: The increased levels of carbon dioxide contribute to the greenhouse effect; the planet is heating up. For example, Antoni Lewkowicz, the president of the Permafrost Association, links directly the thawing of carbon-rich permafrost with climatic changes. In his opinion, increasing emissions of carbon dioxide endanger not only the areas of the North, but also the entire planet.

In the meantime, Vladimir Melnikov, the director of the Earth Cryosphere Institute, thinks that carbon dioxide has nothing to do with warming. The evolution of the Earth shows that periods of glaciation alternate with warmer periods with steady regularity, and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has a marginal impact on these processes. The scientist explains the on-going ice melting by the process of coming back to the former temperatures after the Little Ice Age that lasted from the 12th century to the 19th century. There are also short-time cycles of warming and cooling alternating every thirty years. One of such periods ended in 2005, and the Earth is going to have another decrease in temperature.

On the other hand, academician Melnikov does not deny that the planet is going through tremendous changes. The weather and climate are affected by numerous processes, including volcanic outbursts of ash and water vapors that break through the ozone layer and change the flow of thermal masses. On the one hand, ice melting and permafrost degradation offer opportunities for development of Arctic deposits of hydrocarbons and their transportation along the Northern Sea Route; on the other hand, they increase risks associated with oil and gas production.

Vasily Bogoyavlensky, the head of the laboratory at the Institute of Oil and Gas Problems, the Russian Academy of Sciences, says that in 2010 there was a four point magnitude earthquake in the area of the Shtokmanovskoye field where it had never been expected. Experts of the Kola Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences found out that the earthquake did not occur at deep levels. It turned out that a gigantic iceberg hit the bottom and caused the earthquake, raising doubts about development of the Shtokmanovskoye field.

The five-year-long studies of the shelf revealed a lot of problems preventing development of the deposit. The proponents of its development underestimate the iceberg threat. When a berg comes closer, the vessel that will be used for hydrocarbon production at Shtokman, undoubtedly, can sail away from the well-head to a safer location. However, pipes going down the well may be damaged.

The research conducted by Peter Gaz LLC and other companies has shown that Shtokman has rugged bottom topography. The blame lies with the permafrost that started thawing and leaking the gas accumulated under its layer. The gas emission was accompanied by a strong blowout causing formation of one-hundred-meter funnel-shaped depressions with parapets. Scientists do not know whether the process is still in progress and whether it has any connection with human activities.

They also do not know whether there are any gas hydrates at the bottom (crystalline compounds formed from water and gas under certain conditions), which theoretically must occur at the depth of 350 meters in the water having negative temperatures.

The challenging bottom topography of the Barents Sea is represented not only by funnels, but also by furrows. Some researchers blame icebergs, but the latter generally never exceed 100 meters and, in theory, cannot plow up the bottom at the depth of three hundred meters. Scientists are not aware of the origin of these furrows - according to V. Bogoyavlensky, this phenomenon requires special research.

The Russian Academy of Sciences offers to set up an international station on Bely Island to study the Arctic Region. Not far from this piece of land - on the Yamal Peninsula there are Kharasavey and Bovanenkovo deposits of the Tambey Group. The Bovanenkovo filed is scheduled for commercial development in 2012. In fact, the Russian Academy of Sciences offers to assess the consequences of commercial development of the Arctic Region.

Scientists have strong support from Dmitry Kobylkin, the governor of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. In his opinion, by today no one has complete understanding of the uniqueness of the Arctic shelf, its permafrost and cryogenic processes. Such understanding is essential, as the region is facing challenging tasks, including considerably more intensive cargo traffic via the Northern Sea Route, building a port that will be larger than Murmansk Port, increasing the annual off-shore gas output to 340 billion cubic meters and preventing any damage to the vulnerable ecosystem of the region. Yamal's governor thinks that only science is able to ensure that development of the Arctic Region will be sensible and caring. The first step will be made by the participants of the Yamal-Arctic 2012 sea-based research expedition that will study the northern coast of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District.

Vladimir Terletsky